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the 2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":54.1,"repVoteShare":45.9,"demMarginPct":8.16,"ciLower":3.14,"ciUpper":11.22,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+8 (Modeled)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":57.4,"repVoteShare":42.6,"demMarginPct":14.87,"ciLower":7.93,"ciUpper":18.58,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"LOW","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+8 to D+19 (Estimated 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