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2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":44.8,"repVoteShare":55.2,"demMarginPct":-10.45,"ciLower":-24.32,"ciUpper":-3.37,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+10 (Modeled)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":46.7,"repVoteShare":53.3,"demMarginPct":-6.67,"ciLower":-20.51,"ciUpper":0.72,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+7 (Modeled)"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":45.2,"repVoteShare":54.8,"demMarginPct":-9.67,"ciLower":-22.84,"ciUpper":-2.28,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+10 (Modeled)"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":46.7,"repVoteShare":53.3,"demMarginPct":-6.64,"ciLower":-20.7,"ciUpper":1.27,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+7 (Modeled)"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":48.6,"repVoteShare":51.5,"demMarginPct":-2.9,"ciLower":-18.01,"ciUpper":5.1,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+3 (Modeled)"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":46,"repVoteShare":54,"demMarginPct":-7.96,"ciLower":-16.48,"ciUpper":-1.85,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+8 (Modeled)"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":47.2,"repVoteShare":52.8,"demMarginPct":-5.52,"ciLower":-11.32,"ciUpper":-0.74,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+6 (Modeled)"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":-10.45,"ciLower":-24.32,"ciUpper":-3.37,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+10 (Modeled)"},"related":[{"slug":"french","name":"French","href":"/ancestry/french","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High confidence","shareOfPopulationPct":1.87,"shareOfAdherentsPct":null},{"slug":"french_canadian","name":"French Canadian","href":"/ancestry/french_canadian","relationship":"Same family","releaseLabel":"ELIGIBLE","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"High 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