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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":50.4,"repVoteShare":49.6,"demMarginPct":0.81,"ciLower":-2.54,"ciUpper":3.38,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+1 (High confidence)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":52.8,"repVoteShare":47.2,"demMarginPct":5.61,"ciLower":1.65,"ciUpper":8.41,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+6 (High 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