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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":49.5,"repVoteShare":50.5,"demMarginPct":-0.93,"ciLower":-3.02,"ciUpper":1.96,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"R+1 (High confidence)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":51.9,"repVoteShare":48.1,"demMarginPct":3.76,"ciLower":1.22,"ciUpper":7.21,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+4 (High 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